2023: What Hasn’t Changed?

The drunkard optimism which yesterday momentarily blanketed the good land felt calming. At the helm of the US executive, we could all now see a sensible, experienced, good man. He replaced a pathological liar, inept at governing, and quite the unashamed bigoted thug. That the finger on the nuclear button does not clearly demand psychiatric care does little to mask the ongoing reality of America’s political system.

To put some context around the comings and goings of moving boxes at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue over the last few days, let’s imagine that we are sat two years in the future. COVID is largely settled. Bitcoin is doing its thing. And the tech giants still aren’t paying meaningful corporate taxes. Let’s ask ourselves what then, as we turn a new political page in America’s recent turbulent history, has not changed?

We can be rest assured that levels of homelessness will not change much. There will still be more than half a million people without a permanent roof under which to sleep, of which a quarter will be in New York and Los Angeles. Pacific Islanders, native Americans and Afro-Americans will continue to have the highest levels of homelessness in 2023. Alongside homelessness, the poverty rate will fluctuate between 10% and 15%, as it has since 1965. Again, dominated by ethnic minorities.

Speaking of whom, America’s racism problem won’t change. In the legal system, just as an example, Native Americans will continue to be killed by the police at 3 times the rate of white Americans, Afro-Americans at 2.6 times and Hispanics at 1.3 times. Of course, it’s not just police killings that will impact ethnic minorities. Legislation will hit crimes associated with their communities harder than crimes associated with other communities, and penalties for violation will be far tougher too. And then there’s aspects of the system besides law and order.

Household income levels won’t change either – except for an elite. In fact, 2023 income levels will remain in the sixty-something-thousand-dollar bracket … which is where they were back in 1998. Average individual incomes back in 2000 were $32,032. And in 2023, they will be up to $35,000 – an enchanting increase of less than 0.5% per year. Back in 1989, the top percent of American households by wealth owned 10% of the economy. In 2023, that ownership will remain about what it was in 2021 - about 35%.

I’m sorry. We may have seen a change yesterday. But many of the most troublesome aspects of American life, especially those that desperately need tackling, will remain unbothered. Let’s not pretend that yesterday was part of a revolution. “We the People” will continue to be swindled.