Civil War: “Narrowness of Mind…
... is often the cause of obstinacy” noted the 17th century French moralist Francois de la Rochefoucauld. In the two surveys since the storming of Congress, Trump’s approval ratings have come in at a steady 38 percent, including one by The Marist College which pollsters give substantial credence to.
Yes, 38 percent is low by historical standards, though not the lowest point in modern American politics – both George H W Bush and Jimmy Carter hit much poorer approval ratings. Donald Trump can breathe easily. More than a third of Americans back the 45th president. The narrowness of the mind today occupies a prominent window in the American political shopping mall.
After thousands of lies, years of nastiness, gross ineptitude (US COVID-related deaths will comfortably exceed half a million) and now the incitement of thugs to trash the federal legislature, and praising them as “patriots” literally while they were in full flow, Trump still enjoys significant popularity – to the tune of some hundred million Americans.
If for decades, the US focused on foreign policy adventures, economic growth and domestic race relations, the sheer gravity and seriousness of the political divide will suck political bandwidth for many years. And with it, isolationism will not for once be a proactive choice but an inevitable by-product, ably abetted by the diminution in America’s brand. We will see less of America outside of its borders, which may not be a bad thing given the number of unpleasant dictators who Washington DC continues to support.
The risk of civil war is … no longer a risk. Even if militarily the sides haven’t lined up their arsenals against each other, America is in a political, social and cultural civil war. Underlying that, there’s an epistemic civil war – the sources and acceptance of shared knowledge are frighteningly wide apart. Federal and state judge upon judge determines that there is no evidence of voter fraud, yet those findings are fake news for a hundred million Americans.
And it is from this that the narrow-minded end of the American spectrum, the remarkably substantial and vocal minority, the one that we didn’t quite realize existed, will transform the civil war from the tabloid columns and podcasts to more regular, violent physical confrontations. This genie is not getting back into its bottle. Prepare for a more unstable, erratic and bloody charting in the US than what we’ve become accustomed to.